Ten-Year US Treasuries: A Possible Regime Shift Executive View The sharp September advance in the 10-year US Treasury yield—from approximately 4.7% to 5.3%—may represent more than a short-term repricing. The technical backdrop remains consistent with an upward bias in long-term yields, while persistent fiscal deficits, heavy sovereign issuance, and higher global funding needs may reinforce […]
Category Archives: Technical Analysis
08
Aug
Aug
Three Reasons to Smile about GLD The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rallied last week, supported in part by several constructive technical developments on its weekly chart: A decisive break above the downtrend line in place from March 2026 (blue) A successful test of the 38% retracement of the rally that began in November 2022 […]
22
Dec
Dec
Is the Oracle correction over? Oracle (ORCL) has been in the news lately due to market perception that its projected borrowing of about $170 B for AI build out cannot be covered through organic cash flow and the company may need to scale down its aggressive build out plans. Additionally, its links with OpenAI cast […]
20
Nov
Nov
Archer Daniels Midland – Follow up: Upside Target met The formation of a double top in Archer Daniels Midland (symbol: ADM) was identified in an earlier blog. The double top was confirmed by a break of the neckline which enabled calculation of a downside target as outlined earlier. Prices subsequently rebounded from this level to […]
24
Jun
Jun
ADM – A Case Study in Technical Analysis Archer Daniels Midland is a large U.S. based agricultural products company that buys, processes, and sells crops like corn, wheat and soybeans. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “ADM”. Following COVID-19, ADM rose from a low of $25 to a peak of $90 in […]
07
Apr
Apr
What Next? Events of last week in the financial markets reminded us that markets do correct from time to time. We are in the middle of one now leaving investors wondering if they are gazing at an abyss. It is during these times that technical analysis comes to aid in estimating reasonable levels at which […]
13
Dec
Dec
What is Variance Risk Premium Variance risk premium (VRP) is defined as the difference between Implied volatility and historic volatility measured over a defined period in the past. Capturing this risk premium can be done through options overwriting (selling calls or call spreads) or under writing (selling puts or put spreads). Implied volatility usually exceeds […]