Stop Looking Only at the VIX! The “Volatility Trinity” That Predicts Crashes In this masterclass episode of Traders of the World, Flavio Lemos and Enrico Cozzolino welcome Sowmi Krishnamurthy, CMT. After a 35-year career at Mobil/ExxonMobil (including 8 years trading physical and paper oil in the Asia Pacific), Sowmi founded SK Market Insights. He views […]
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22
Dec
Dec
Is the Oracle correction over? Oracle (ORCL) has been in the news lately due to market perception that its projected borrowing of about $170 B for AI build out cannot be covered through organic cash flow and the company may need to scale down its aggressive build out plans. Additionally, its links with OpenAI cast […]
20
Nov
Nov
Archer Daniels Midland – Follow up: Upside Target met The formation of a double top in Archer Daniels Midland (symbol: ADM) was identified in an earlier blog. The double top was confirmed by a break of the neckline which enabled calculation of a downside target as outlined earlier. Prices subsequently rebounded from this level to […]
18
Oct
Oct
Volatility Update Following a period of elevated VIX in the first week of October (shown by the cluster of dots on lower right) — indicating higher degree of short-term risk — this concern has now spread to the longer term through a flattening of the slope of the term structure (dots to the right). VIX […]
24
Jun
Jun
ADM – A Case Study in Technical Analysis Archer Daniels Midland is a large U.S. based agricultural products company that buys, processes, and sells crops like corn, wheat and soybeans. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “ADM”. Following COVID-19, ADM rose from a low of $25 to a peak of $90 in […]
07
Apr
Apr
What Next? Events of last week in the financial markets reminded us that markets do correct from time to time. We are in the middle of one now leaving investors wondering if they are gazing at an abyss. It is during these times that technical analysis comes to aid in estimating reasonable levels at which […]
13
Dec
Dec
What is Variance Risk Premium Variance risk premium (VRP) is defined as the difference between Implied volatility and historic volatility measured over a defined period in the past. Capturing this risk premium can be done through options overwriting (selling calls or call spreads) or under writing (selling puts or put spreads). Implied volatility usually exceeds […]